Macroeconomic policymaking confronts two challenges. First, policymakers do not know the economy's actual data-generating process (DGP). Second, their beliefs typically feedback to influence the model, which makes DGP endogenous. Modeling the policy maker as a boundedly rational agent, we analyze the dynamics of US inflation post World War II, and offer a coherent story about the complex dynamics of US inflation within a unified framework of learning and model validation. Along the way, we examine and reconcile two influential, yet conflicting, views on US inflation by Thomas J. Sargent and Christopher Sims.
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סילבוס מקוצר
Macroeconomic policymaking confronts two challenges. First, policymakers do not know the economy's actual data-generating process (DGP). Second, their beliefs typically feedback to influence the model, which makes DGP endogenous. Modeling the policy maker as a boundedly rational agent, we analyze the dynamics of US inflation post World War II, and offer a coherent story about the complex dynamics of US inflation within a unified framework of learning and model validation. Along the way, we examine and reconcile two influential, yet conflicting, views on US inflation by Thomas J. Sargent and Christopher Sims.